Renewable energy outlook: Thailand

The commitments that the Government of Thailand has made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20-25% from the business-as-usual scenario by 2030 requires concerted actions for decarbonisation of the energy sector. Thailand has set a new renewable energy target of 30% of total final energy consumption by 2036 in its Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) 2015. This study evaluates the three sub-sectors of power generation, thermal use and bioenergy, with a focus on the identification and analysis of the key challenges to achieving the targets set out in AEDP 2015. It conducts an in-depth renewable technology assessment using the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) REmap analysis tool to identify where additional potential for renewable energy lies while quantifying additional factors including cost, effects on externalities and investments.

The key findings show that Thailand has the potential to increase the share of renewable energy in final energy from the present AEDP target of 30% in 2036 to as high as 37%. The study also presents a different portfolio of technology options from those in AEDP 2015 with a minimum saving of USD 1.2 billion per year before factoring in the benefits from reduced adverse effects on health and the environment. However, to capture the benefits Thailand will need to invest significantly in its energy system over the coming two decades and consider the following findings and recommendations in addressing the challenges ahead.